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HORIZON SCANNING

DISCOVER RISK PERSPECTIVES ON CURRENT EVENTS

Uncertainty…

Can it be your greatest source of Opportunity?

“Traditional managers rely on calculated cleverness to avoid risks. The successful managers, however, embrace calculated risks, backed by their cleverness.” — Matt Watkinson (Mastering Uncertainty)

Welcome, my friends, to 2025.

As Francis Bacon wisely wrote over 400 years ago, “If a man (or woman) will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he is content with doubts, he shall end in certainties.”

Building on this idea, I believe that thriving in today’s uncertain, chaotic, and complex environment requires a shift in mindset. To not only survive but to truly thrive, we must embrace uncertainty/ambiguity and take thoughtful risks. Yet, in the midst of uncertainty, resilience remains key.

07 January 2025

Why Experience can be a Risk

I would like to remind all of us that we ought not to singularly rely on our experiences or the experiences of those around us/we depend on. Those dependencies include vendors, suppliers, consultants, and, yes, colleagues/workmates. Experience, singularly relied upon, can be a risk.


According to Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman:

“In a rapidly changing world, the lessons of experience can easily point us in the wrong direction. And because the pace of change is accelerating, our environments are becoming more unpredictable. This makes experience (and intuition) less reliable as a source of insight about new ideas and places a growing premium on analysis”…… 


Please note that this quote comes from his book Thinking Fast and Slow, which was published in 2011. The “environment” referenced in the quote is now much more chaotic, unpredictable, and changing much more rapidly.

What is the moral of this story: (IMHO)

  • Lead in with skill sets
  • Apply “New Thinking” to decision-making (less linear, more system thinking)
  • Think Resilience management
  • Effective risk management reduces crisis management.

Remember… proactive, resilient and anticipatory is the new way!

04 November 2024

Resilience is not Responding After the Event!

Resilience does not begin with a response…. As many islands of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern Caribbean, are facing (direct or indirect) Hurricane Beryl, I thought about the following concepts and their differences:

  • Vulnerability
  • Sustainability and
  • Resilience.

But let’s focus on Resilience!

Resilience, resourcefulness, and ‘bounce forward’ strategies are not spontaneous. They must result from meticulous preparations and detailed risk evaluation of your environment and the external environment, including potential “inconceivable” events. Horizon scanning, along with ADEQUATE analysis and adequate planning /resourcing, are key to a confident and in-control response and post-event progress.

Let’s all be proactive, anticipatory, and resilient.

Be safe out there…

~Ken Hackshaw

16 July 2024

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