What’s happening in the Enterprise Risk Management world?
HORIZON SCANNING
Why Experience can be a Risk
I would like to remind all of us that we ought not to singularly rely on our experiences or the experiences of those around us/we depend on. Those dependencies include vendors, suppliers, consultants, and, yes, colleagues/workmates. Experience, singularly relied upon, can be a risk.
According to Nobel prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman:
“In a rapidly changing world, the lessons of experience can easily point us in the wrong direction. And because the pace of change is accelerating, our environments are becoming more unpredictable. This makes experience (and intuition) less reliable as a source of insight about new ideas and places a growing premium on analysis”……
Please note that this quote comes from his book Thinking Fast and Slow, which was published in 2011. The “environment” referenced in the quote is now much more chaotic, unpredictable, and changing much more rapidly.
What is the moral of this story: (IMHO)
- Lead in with skill sets
- Apply “New Thinking” to decision-making (less linear, more system thinking)
- Think Resilience management
- Effective risk management reduces crisis management.
Remember… proactive, resilient and anticipatory is the new way!
04 November 2024
Resilience is not Responding After the Event!
Resilience does not begin with a response…. As many islands of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern Caribbean, are facing (direct or indirect) Hurricane Beryl, I thought about the following concepts and their differences:
- Vulnerability
- Sustainability and
- Resilience.
But let’s focus on Resilience!
Resilience, resourcefulness, and ‘bounce forward’ strategies are not spontaneous. They must result from meticulous preparations and detailed risk evaluation of your environment and the external environment, including potential “inconceivable” events. Horizon scanning, along with ADEQUATE analysis and adequate planning /resourcing, are key to a confident and in-control response and post-event progress.
Let’s all be proactive, anticipatory, and resilient.
Be safe out there…
~Ken Hackshaw
16 July 2024
❞Strategic Plans must be Agile…
As companies develop their strategic plans, I submit that agility must be one of the pillars of that plan. Companies must employ horizon scanning, using both a microscope and telescope to ensure they are looking at not only what is happening and immediate (what is close) but also what can happen (i.e., future-proofing) and what is farther away.
The following is a great example, if not a bit “funny.”
“Japan’s aging population is shifting even its diaper business. Japanese diaper company Oji Holdings recently announced that it’ll stop producing for babies domestically and will make adult versions instead—though it will continue making products for babies’ tushes in Malaysia and Indonesia. The decision reflects what’s been happening in the Japanese market for a while now: In 2011, the nation’s biggest diaper brand, Unicharm, said adult versions had outsold baby ones. And it’s grown more acute since then. Last year, Japan recorded its fewest annual births since the 19th century, and the proportion of its population over age 80 grew to more than 10%, per the BBC. Japan’s growing adult diaper market is estimated at ~$2 billion.”
Stay proactive, resilient and anticipatory folks!
28 March 2024
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